This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Canada. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will try to receive my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will likely have a couple shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Macy Chiasson — $9,400
Macy Chiasson is undoubtedly the safest play on the board this week and she has 100+ point upside. She’s a lock in my money games this week and that I don’t really see the way she loses. I believe a submission could be Moras’ best chance but she isn’t very capable of getting the battle to the floor, so I see her getting dominated on the feet before the ref measures. She’s by far my favorite play in the $9k range and she’s a -750 on the gambling line. I like playing it safer in money games and I think she is a safe win this week.
GPP drama of this week — Greg Hardy- $8,600
This is a simple one for me and he’ll be the chalk of this week. I will continue to be overweight on Merab though. His style is precisely what we want on DraftKings. He’s got a nonstop speed and he shoots takedowns frequently. He’s 22 landed takedowns in his first 3 UFC fights which is his very best path to victory in this matchup too. Even with 2 losses on his album out of those 3 fights, he averages more DK points than Katona does with his 2-0 UFC record. This isn’t my GPP drama of the week since I know he’s going to win, I only know IF he wins that he will score highly, and that he needs to easily reach value on an $8.6k price .
Underdog play of this week — Donald’Cowboy’ Cerrone — $7,800
I must pick Cowboy as the puppy of the week. His fights are always action packed and the winner of the fight will surely be about the first-place lineup. Especially if it is Cowboy. He always scores over 100 points in his wins and he has 5-rounds to use here. I don’t find a situation where he wins and does not end up on the $25k lineup. I’ll be overweight on Cowboy this week, but this really is an all-in struggle for me. If Cowboy is not in a one of my lineups, then you are going to see Iaquinta there. I will be heavier on the Cowboy side though and I believe he gets the job done by submission.
Fade of the week — Elias Theodorou ($8,000)
I would be quite surprised to see Theodorou on the 1st location lineup this week. I would be amazed to see him get even 10x his $8k price tag and that’s why I have zero lineups together with this week. Not counting his fight with Dan Kelly, his 4 wins before that scored 76, 69, 64, and 49. His style is just bad for DraftKings. He is going to have to knock Brunson out if he is going to score tremendously and he isn’t a power puncher. I think you’re better off carrying Elias from TKO on the gambling line at +870. I don’t see any reason to invest in this week at GPPs because he does not possess the ceiling we would like to win that large $25k. I believe he’s fine in money games as a 65-point win wouldn’t kill us there. However he is an easy fade of this week for me this Saturday.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my entire DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I’m 71-45 for +233.79u (+$23,379) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
Read more: ufc200-fight.com